June 01, 2023

Daily Report 01/06/2023

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Sterling drifted lower after Wednesday’s European open with a test of support against the dollar. Bank of England MPC member Mann stated that the gap between headline and core inflation is more persistent than in the US. She added that firms will use it if they have high pricing power. The rhetoric remained hawkish, although this would have been no surprise given her voting record and rhetoric over the past few months. Sterling edged higher later in the day with choppy trading and net gains against the dollar despite fragile risk conditions. Sterling moved to highs as the dollar faded before settling on Thursday. US and Euro-Zone data releases are likely to dominate near-term Sterling moves.

No Key Data

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The Euro was unable to make any headway ahead of Wednesday’s New York open and continued to drift lower against the firm US dollar. German unemployment increased 9,000 for may after 23,000 increase the previous month, but slightly lower than expectations of a 14,000 increase. German consumer prices declined 0.1% for May compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase with the inflation rate declining sharply to 6.1% from 7.2% previously. The HICP rate also declined to 6.3% from 6.8% previously. The headline French inflation rate also declined to 5.1% from 5.9%. The weaker than expected data increased speculation that the ECB could adopt a less aggressive monetary policy stance. ECB council member Villeroy stated that it is quite likely that inflation has peaked in France and the central bank will bring inflation down to 2% between now and 2025.

Key Data 

7.00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) Act. -4.3% Exp. -5% Prev. -8.6%
10.00 Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (May) Exp. 5.5% Prev. 5.6%
10.00 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (May) Exp. 6.3% Prev. 7%
10.30 Christine Lagarde Speech

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The House of Representatives voted in favour of the debt-ceiling Bill with the legislation now moving to the Senate. The US Chicago PMI manufacturing index declined to a 6-month low of 40.4 for May from 48.6 previously and below expectations of 47.0. The data maintained a run of notably negative releases for the manufacturing sector. The JOLTS data recorded an increase in job-openings to 10.10mn for April from a revised 9.75mn previously and above expectations of 9.78mn. The data maintained expectations that the labour market was still tight. Treasuries dipped lower in response, although there was a quick recovery as yields failed to hold higher levels. Fed Governor Bowman stated that there was evidence that the residential real estate market appears to be rebounding.

Key Data

13.15 ADP Employment Change (May) Exp. 170K Prev. 296K
15.00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) Exp. 47 Prev. 47.1