September 01, 2022

Daily Report 01/09/2022

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Sterling remained under pressure in early Europe on Wednesday with confidence sapped by an underlying lack of confidence in the outlook. Recession fears have continued to increase with doubts whether the Bank of England will be able to push ahead with interest rate hikes. Overall risk conditions were also fragile with the benchmark FTSE 100 index posting further losses which also undermined potential support for the UK currency. There will be intense pressure for the new Prime Minister to make an early move in boosting support payments in order to limit damage to the economy. The ONS confirmed that the current energy bill rebates will not have any effect on the consumer prices index with current estimates of peak inflation continuing to increase.

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German August unemployment increased 28,000 after a 45,000 gain previously and in line with expectations with the jobless rate edging higher to 5.5% from 5.4%. Headline Euro-Zone consumer process increased 0.5% for August with the year-on-year rate increasing to a fresh record high of 9.1% from 8.9% and slightly above consensus forecasts of 9.0%. The core inflation rate increased to 4.3% from 4.0% which was above market expectations of 4.0% and also a fresh record high. There was further uncertainty over gas developments with the Nord-Stream pipeline closed for a 3-day maintenance period amid doubts whether supplies would resume. There was further hawkish ECB rhetoric later in the day with council member Holzmann stating that a 50 basis-point rate hike is a minimum for next week and 75 basis points should be debated. The Euro gained an element of short covering into the month-end London fix.

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US developments remained an important focus. The revamped US ADP employment report recorded an increase in private-sector payrolls of 132,000 for August after an increase of close to 270,000 for July and below consensus forecasts of 290,000 for the month. There was a significant dip in jobs for the smallest companies and mid-sized employers of 250-499 employees also recorded an employment decline for the month while other categories posted net gains. ADP reported that annual pay was up 7.6% over the year with relative stability in annual growth over the past few months.

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15.00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) Exp. 52 Prev. 52.8