Sterling overall lost ground on Thursday with an element of position adjustment ahead of the Bank of England policy decision. The deterioration in risk conditions was also an important influence with weaker equities undermining Sterling support. The latest YouGov poll recorded a decline in 1-year inflation expectations to 4.3% from 5.0% with long-term expectations at 3.2% from 3.3%. The Bank of England will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. Consensus forecasts are for a further 25 basis-point hike in interest rates to 5.25%, although a significant minority expect a further 50 basis-point hike to 5.50%. Updated inflation forecasts and forward guidance will inevitably be an important factor in determining the Pound’s response. Futures markets have priced in at least a rate hike of 25 basis points.
Key Data
12.00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Exp. 5.25% – 5.5% Prev. 5%
12.00 Bank of England Minutes
12.30 Andrew Bailey Speech
Stronger than expected US data triggered renewed dollar buying with the Euro retreating to re-test Tuesday lows. Weaker risk conditions were also important in undermining the Euro amid fresh reservations over the global economy. In this environment, the Euro dipped to 3-week lows just against the US currency before a slight recovery.
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US ADP data recorded an increase in private payrolls of 324,000 for July, again substantially above consensus forecasts of 190,000 while the June increase was revised down to 455,000 the previous month. There were job losses in manufacturing while there was a surge in leisure and hospitality jobs for the month. Large companies cut jobs for the month while there were notable gains in payrolls within smaller companies. The annual increase in wages for job stayers edged lower to 6.2% from 6.4% and the slowest rate of increase since November 2021.
Key Data
15.00 ISM Services PMI (Jul) Exp. 53 Prev. 53.9