August 04, 2022

Daily Report 04/08/2022

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The final reading of the UK PMI services index was revised slightly lower to 52.6 from the flash reading of 53.3 and confirmed at a 17-month low. Overall business confidence remained subdued and close to 2020 lows while there was a limited easing of inflation pressures. There was little overall impact from the data with global developments dominating ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision. Overall risk appetite held firm which provided some wider UK currency protection, but the UK currency steadily lost ground amid the firm US dollar trend. There are strong expectations that the Bank of England will increase interest rates by 50 basis points to 1.75% with forward guidance from the bank likely to be crucial for Sterling moves. The bank faces a tough trade-off between inflation and growth fears, increasing the risk of a surprise decision.

Key Data 

12.00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Exp. 1.75% Curr. 1.25%
12.00 Bank of England Minutes
12.00 Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
12.30 Andrew Bailey Speech

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The Euro-Zone PMI manufacturing services index was revised higher to 51.2 in July’s final reading from the flash reading of 50.6. There was a stronger than expected reading for Spanish figure, but Italian services dipped into contraction territory. There was a slight easing of inflation pressures on the month. The Euro was unable to make any headway ahead of the New York open and gradually drifted lower as the dollar maintained a firm tone.

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There was a slight upward revision to the US PMI services index to 47.3 from the flash reading of 47.0. The ISM non-manufacturing index strengthened to 56.7 for July from 55.3 the previous month and well above consensus forecasts of 53.5. There was a stronger rate of growth in business activity and a stronger rate of increase in new orders. The employment sector remained in contraction for the month, but inventories edged lower. The prices index declined by the largest amount for over 5 years and registered the weakest reading since March 2021. The stronger than expected headline figure curbed reservations over the economic outlook and renewed demand for the dollar even though inflation expectations dipped slightly.

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