The Bank of England increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% at the latest policy meeting. This was the 14th successive rate hike and took rates to a 15-year high. The decision was in line consensus forecasts, although a minority had expected a 50 basis-point hike. Haskel and Mann voted for a 50 basis-point hike to act forcefully against inflation while Dhingra again voted for no change in rates due to the risk of tightening too far. Forward guidance was mixed with the bank stating that policy is now restrictive, but also warning over services-sector inflation with a particular focus on wages.
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Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) initially surged higher against the Pound on Thursday, despite a raft of downbeat Eurozone data. First off, Germany’s latest balance of trade report showed a much smaller-than-expected rise in exports, which were up 0.1% versus the expected 0.3%, as well as a huge slump in imports, implying that domestic demand is weakening. Nevertheless, the Euro strengthened against the Pound through the start of Thursday’s session and extended these gains in the wake of the Bank of England decision.
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The US ISM non-manufacturing index retreated to 52.7 for July from 53.9 previously and slightly below consensus forecasts of 53.0. There were also slightly slower rates of growth in business activity and new orders while order backlogs reverted to small growth on the month. There was only a slight employment increase for the month while prices increased at a slightly faster rate. The US employment report will be released on Friday with consensus forecasts for an increase in non-farm payrolls of just above 200,000 with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.6% and average hourly wages increase of 0.3%.
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