March 06, 2023

Daily Report 06/03/2023

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The UK services PMI index was revised slightly higher to 53.5 from the flash reading of 53.3 with new orders growth hitting a 9-month high. The rate of increase in input costs slowed to a 20-month low, but there was still a very rate of increase in output charges. Sterling overall was held in relatively tight ranges during the day. There was further speculation that the government would increase energy-support payments for the second quarter in order to prevent a further increase in retail energy prices. The latest YouGov survey recorded an increase in 1-year inflation expectations to 5.6% from 5.4% with long-term expectations increasing to 3.8% from 3.5%.

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There was a downward revision to the Euro-Zone services-sector index to 52.7 from the flash reading of 53.0, although this was still an 8-month high while there was again a strong rate of increase in price increases which will keep the ECB on high inflation alert. Latest data indicated that European gas inventory levels are at record highs for this point in the winter season, maintaining downward pressure on prices which will also underpin the economic outlook.

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10.00 Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) Exp. 1.9% Prev. -2.8%

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The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI index declined marginally to 55.1 for February from 55.2 the previous month, but above consensus forecasts of 54.5. There was a slowdown in business activity for the month while new orders increased at a faster rate on the month. There was a stronger rate of growth in employment for the month while supply constraints eased slightly and the prices index retreated slightly to 65.6 from 67.8 previously. Although this was the lowest reading for two years, the overall rate of increase was still relatively high in historic terms.

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