July 06, 2023

Daily Report 06/07/2023

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The final June UK PMI services-sector index was unrevised from the flash reading of 53.7 with the composite reading on hold at 52.8. Input prices increased at the slowest rate since May 2021 and there was a net slowdown in the rate of increase in services-sector charges. There was little impact from the data with the UK 2-year yield holding above the 5.30% level. There was, however, a further shift in market pricing with markets indicating a 50% chance that Bank of England rates could be increased to 6.50%.

No Key Data

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The final reading for the June Euro-Zone PMI services-sector index was revised down to 52.0 from the flash reading of 52.4 and below the May figure of 55.1 with the Spanish and Italian figures both weaker than expected. The overall composite PMI index edged below the 50.0 level. Services-sector prices increased at the slowest rate for 20 months and overall output prices increased by the smallest amount since March 2021. Bundesbank head Nagel stated that interest rates must increase further, although it is too early to say how far they must increase. There was, however, also dovish ECB rhetoric during the day. Council member Visco stated that the bank could bring the inflation rate back to target by holding rates for a certain period of time rather than hiking them further. He added that he did not agree with the idea of tightening too much over too little.

Key Data

10.00 Retail Sales (YoY) (May) Exp. -2.7% Prev. -2.6%

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Bond markets were a key influence with Treasuries posting sizeable losses as the 10-year yield increased to 4-week highs near 3.95%. According to minutes from June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to the leave the target rate unchanged, but some indicated that they would have supported raising rates by a further 25 basis points. There were further concerns over inflation with almost all members stating that upside risks to inflation remained key to the policy outlook. There was a muted reaction given that a hawkish set of minutes had been priced in, but the dollar held a firm tone, especially with almost all members expecting that interest rates will be increased again. New York Fed President Williams insisted that the central bank will be data dependent, but that inflation is still too high.

Key Data

13.15 ADP Employment Change (Jun) Exp. 228K Prev. 278K
15.00 ISM Services PMI (Jun) Exp. 51 Prev. 50.3