The UK construction sector PMI index recovered to a 5-month high of 51.7 for July from 48.9 previously and well above consensus forecasts of 48.1. There was a further contraction in residential house building, but this was offset by solid growth in the commercial and civil sectors. Despite stronger than expected data, markets overall tended to scale back expectations of peak UK interest rates. Sterling posted gains after the US jobs data with a peak against the dollar. As well as a weaker US currency, a more constructive risk tone also helped underpin Pound sentiment to some extent. CFTC data reported a further decline in long Sterling positions to just below 50,000 contracts from 59,000 the previous week. There is still scope for a further closing of long Sterling positions if there is a shift in sentiment towards the UK outlook.
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There were comments from the ECB that underlying inflation appears to have peaked. The comments increased speculation that the ECB would not increase interest rates at the September policy meeting which curbed Euro support.
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According to the BLS report, US non-farm payrolls increased 187,000 for July compared with expectations of just above 200,000 while the June increase was revised down to 185,000 from the 209,000 reported originally. Manufacturing employment declined marginally on the month and there was a second successive decline in transport-related jobs. The BLS reported that employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased 20,000 on the month while the ADP data released on Wednesday indicated that there had been a 200,000 surge in leisure jobs. The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.5% from 3.6% with the participation rate unchanged on the month while the number of employed increased over 260,000 on the month. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month compared with expectations of 0.3% with the year-on-year increase unchanged at 4.4%.
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