July 08, 2022

Daily Report 08/07/2022

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After the European open on Thursday, Prime Minster Johnson announced that he would resign as Conservative Party leader. He intends to stay in office in a caretaker role, although there is an important element of uncertainty over the timetable. An ending of immediate uncertainty provided an element of Sterling relief  Bank of England external MPC member Mann stated that there were very high UK inflation expectations over a 1-year horizon and that the decision-makers panel survey recorded that firms expect to increase prices 6.3% over the next year, well above the 2% inflation target.

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German industrial production increased 0.2% for May after a 1.3% increase the previous month, but slightly below market expectations with a weak overall outlook.Minutes from the June’s ECB policy meeting stated that a large initial rate hike would risk causing an excessive market reaction, but chief economist Lane stated that he saw no need to postpone the big rate hike until September which maintained a high degree of uncertainty over the July policy decision.

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12:55 ECB’s President Lagarde speech

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US initial jobless claims increased to 235,000 in the latest week from 231,000 previously and slightly above consensus forecasts of 230,000 while continuing claims increased to 1.38mn from 1.32mn previously. The Challenger jobs data recorded over 32,000 layoffs for June, an increase of 59% over the year. The May trade deficit narrowed to $85.5bn from $86.7bn previously as exports increased to a record high and at a faster pace than imports on the month.

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13:30 US Non farm payrolls      Forecast 268k Previous 390k