January 10, 2023

Daily Report 10/01/2023

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There were no major domestic developments during the European session on Monday with international market sentiment and dollar moves tending to dominate. Overall risk appetite held firm which provided an important element of protection for the currency during the day. Bank of England chief economist Pill stated that domestic factors could make UK inflation more persistent with risks from high natural gas prices, adverse labour supply developments and bottlenecks in the goods sector. He added that the risk of second-round inflation effects remain, although he also noted that supply disruptions appear to have eased. The BRC reported a like-for-like annual increase of 6.5% in UK retail sales, although the data was flattered by 2021 weakness with subdued volumes given the increase in prices.

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10.10 Andrew Bailey Speech

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The Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence index improved further to -17.5 for January from -21.0 the previous month and slightly stronger than consensus forecasts of -18.0. Sentix noted that there had been very little change in the current assessment while there was a significant net improvement in the expectations components. Sentix added that the end of the restrictive Coronavirus measures in China is generating hopes of better times ahead. The Euro-Zone unemployment rate was held at 6.5% for November with markets maintaining a slightly more optimistic stance towards the economy as a whole, especially with lower gas prices.

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The US employment index retreated to 116.3 for December from 117.1 the previous month. The dollar overall remained under pressure during the day with further speculation that the Federal Reserve would be able to adopt a less aggressive stance given evidence of weaker data and moderation in upward pressure on wages. Futures markets indicated that markets were putting the chances of a 25 basis-point increase at just over 75% for the February 1st policy meeting.

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14.00 Jerome Powell Speech