May 10, 2023

Daily Report 10/05/2023

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Sterling was unable to make headway against the dollar during Tuesday, especially with a weaker tone in UK and global equities. There was still solid underlying demand for the UK currency with resilience and buying on dips. There are still strong expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points at Thursday’s policy meeting. The bank will also release the latest Monetary Policy Report with forward guidance also likely to be a key element during the day.

No Key Data

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ECB council member Kazimir stated that slowing the pace of rate hikes lets the ECB go higher for longer and he also warned that rate hikes may have to continue beyond July. Bundesbank head Nagel also stated that interest rates needed to increase further to curb inflation. The Euro was unable to make any headway after Tuesday’s European open.

Key Data 

7.00 German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Apr) Act. 7.6% Exp. 7.6% Prev. 7.6%

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US NFIB small-business confidence index retreated to 80.0 for April from 90.1 and below consensus forecasts of 89.6. The latest US consumer prices data will be released on Wednesday. Consensus forecasts are for a monthly increase in prices of 0.4% with the headline year-on-year rate unchanged at 5.0%. Core prices are also expected to increase 0.4% with the annual rate declining marginally to 5.5% from 5.6% Higher than expected data, especially for the core data, would trigger renewed doubts whether inflation trends will be able to justify lower interest rates later this year. There will, however, be a high degree of uncertainty if inflation edges higher and the data suggests that the economy is weakening sharply. The dollar would be likely to weaken in this scenario, especially if markets expect that supporting the economy would have to take precedence over the inflation fight.

Key Data 

13.30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Apr) Exp. 0.4% Prev. 0.4%
13.30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Apr) Exp. 5.5% Prev. 5.6%
13.30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Apr) Exp. 5% Prev. 5%