August 10, 2023

Daily Report 10/08/2023

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There were no significant UK data releases on Wednesday with quiet conditions prevailing. Risk appetite attempted to recover early in the session, but overall conditions remained fragile with a notable lack of overall traction and Sterling was unable to hold intra-day highs. The latest UK GDP data will be released on Friday with consensus forecasts for a small monthly increase for June. Second-quarter GDP is expected to be unchanged compared with the previous quarter after a 0.1% increase the previous month. The latest RICS housing data recorded a decline in the headline index to –53 for July from a revised –48 previously. This was weaker than expectations of –50 and the weakest reading since 2009. Overall confidence remained weak with a significant impact from the rapid and sustained increase in interest rates.

No Key Data

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The Euro held a solid tone after Wednesday’s European open, but was unable to make a challenge higher against the US dollar. There were no major data releases during the day and trading volumes remained low, especially with US and European markets in the peak holiday season. Equities struggled to make any further headway after relief at the open and the Euro drifted lower, especially with higher oil prices.

No Key Data

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The latest US consumer prices data will be released on Thursday. Consensus forecasts are for the headline inflation rate to increase to 3.3% from 3.0% the previous month, primarily due to the fact that prices declined in July 2022. The core inflation rate is forecast to edge lower to 4.7% from 4.8% the previous month. Stronger than expected data would trigger fresh concerns over inflation trends and maintain Federal Reserve determination to maintain a very hawkish policy stance. Lower than expected data would provide important relief and increase hopes that interest rates will not have to increase further.

Key Data

13.30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jul) Exp. 0.2% Prev. 0.2%
13.30 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) Exp. 3.3% Prev. 3%
13.30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Jul) Exp. 0.2% Prev. 0.2%
13.30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jul) Exp. 4.8% Prev. 4.8%