August 11, 2023

Daily Report 11/08/2023

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Sterling spiked higher after the US inflation data with a move above 1.2800 against the dollar, although there was a quick and sharp retracement to below 1.2750 as the dollar recovered ground. There were further reservations surrounding the UK economy, especially after the latest housing data which sapped potential support. Sterling was also unable to take advantage of benign risk conditions during the day and stumbled into the European close.

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The euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday as we have bounced from the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA continues to be a major indicator that a lot of people will pay attention to for directionality. Earlier today, Germany published the final estimate of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which s confirmed at 6.5% YoY. On the other hand, the US released the NFIB Business Optimism Index, up to 91.9 in July from 91 in June. Additionally, the June Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a deficit of $ 65.5 billion, worse than anticipated.

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US consumer prices increased 0.2% for July, in line with consensus forecasts, although the year-on-year increase was held to 3.2% from 3.0% and marginally below expectations of 3.3%. Food prices increased 0.2% for the month with the annual rate at 4.9%. Energy prices increased 0.1% on the month with a year-on-year decline of 12.5%. Underlying prices also increased 0.2% on the month and met consensus forecasts while the year-on-year rate declined to 4.7% from 4.8% and marginally below market expectations. This was the lowest core reading since November 2021.

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