October 17, 2022

Daily Report 17/10/2022

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Ahead of Friday’s New York open, Chancellor Kwarteng was sacked by Prime Minister Truss. Sterling overall was unable to build on gains seen on Thursday with a further U-turn in fiscal policy already priced in and the acute political uncertainty was also a key element in curbing underlying currency support. Truss appointed former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt as the new Chancellor and in a press conference at the Wall Street open confirmed that corporation tax would be increased next year. The Bank of England accepted all the bids at the final scheduled gilt auction, but there was an increase in bond yields with the 10-year yield at around 4.15% with major underlying uncertainty. Sterling was subjected to choppy trading with a slide against the dollar amid wider US strength and weaker risk appetite. Over the weekend, Chancellor Hunt reiterated that fiscal policy would need to be tightened with very limited scope for tax cuts with the potential for spending cuts. Bank of England Governor Bailey also warned that there would need to be a stronger increase in interest rates than expected at the next meeting.  Sterling posted gains at the Asian open amid the shift in fiscal stance and rate-hike expectations. Bond yields will be watched closely with Sterling rallying further after the announcement that medium-term fiscal plans will be announced on Monday.

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On Friday, ECB member Kazimir stated that a 75 basis-point rate hike was appropriate for the October meeting while fellow member Vasle stated that 75 basis-point hikes may be appropriate in the October and December meetings with the ECB insisting that rates need to increase through a neutral level. Vice-President de Guindos, did, however, express fears over the growth outlook with comments that the downside scenario considered in September was now closer to the baseline scenario. The Euro was unable to make any headway after the European open and dipped to lows.

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US retail sales were unchanged for September after a revised 0.4% increase the previous month and slightly below consensus forecasts of a 0.2% increase. Underlying sales increased 0.1% while there was a 0.4% gain for the control group with little net impact on expectations. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index strengthened to 59.8 for October from 58.6 previously and above consensus forecasts of 59.0. There was a notable increase in the current conditions index, but the expectations component recorded a net decline on the month. The 1-year inflation expectations index increased significantly to 5.1% from 4.7% while the 5-year index edged moved higher to 2.9% from 2.7%. There was choppy trading towards the European close with the dollar posting significant gains as the inflation expectations data triggered further speculation that the Fed would remain on course for a further sharp rate hikes.

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