December 20, 2022

Daily Report 20/12/2022

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Sterling posted net gains after Monday’s European open with highs against the dollar. The CBI industrial orders index edged lower to -6 from -5, but slightly better than consensus forecasts of -10. The CBI, however, stated that manufacturing output volumes declined at the fastest rate for over two years while inflation pressure remained well above the long-run average and prices were slightly stronger than the previous survey. Risk appetite remained less confident later in the day which tended to drag Sterling lower amid further reservations surrounding the global outlook.

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The German IFO business confidence index strengthened to 88.6 for December from a revised 86.4 previously and above consensus forecasts of 87.4. The current conditions component strengthened to 94.4 from 93.2 with an improvement in the expectations index to 83.2 from 80.2 The IFO stated that the German economy is entering the holiday season with a sense of hope and that nearly every industry has seen improved business conditions while supply-side constraints have eased further. The IFO added that there is a reduced risk of recession, although the institute stated that it would not go as far as calling it a trend reversal. The data helped underpin confidence in the overall outlook. ECB council member Kazimir stated that strong action will be necessary in the first half of 2023. He added that rates will not only have to go into restrictive territory, but stay there for much longer. The comments maintained the hawkish rhetoric since last week’s policy meeting.

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Equities continued to move lower, but there was notable dollar buying as yields moved higher. The dollar was unable to make any headway at the start of the week as liquidity remains thin ahead of the holiday season.

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