December 22, 2022

Daily Report 22/12/2022

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Overall sterling lost ground following Wednesday’s European open with the latest government borrowing data causing fresh reservations over the outlook, especially with debt interest payments rising further.  The UK CBI retail sales index recovered to 11 for December from -19 the previous month and was substantially above consensus forecasts of -24. Retailers, however, expect sales to decline again for January as underlying confidence remained weak. Significantly, the UK currency was again unable to gain support from stronger risk appetite with vulnerability despite sharp gains in equities, although it did manage to recover against the dollar. Gains in equities should still provide a significant element of protection. The UK current account deficit narrowed to £19.4bn for the third quarter of 2022 from a revised £35.1bn previously, although confidence in the UK outlook remained notably weak.

Key Data 

7.00 Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q3) Act. -0.3% Exp. -0.2% Prev. -0.2%

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German consumer confidence recovered slightly to -37.8 for January from -40.1 the previous month and was in line with expectations. The Euro edged higher in early Europe, although overall moves were limited with a further round of choppy and relatively directionless trading.
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US consumer confidence recovered more strongly than expected to an 8-month high of 108.3 for December from a revised 101.4 and well above consensus forecasts of 101.0. There were significant rebounds for the current situation and expectations components. There was also increased confidence in the labour market for the month. Existing home sales, however, dipped further to an annualised rate of 4.09mn for November from 4.43mn the previous month. This was below market expectations of 4.20mn and the weakest reading since June 2020. Excluding the June 2020 figure, this was the weakest reading for 12 years.

Key Data 

13.30 Gross Domestic Product Annualised (Q3) Exp. 2.9% Prev. 2.9%