July 27, 2022

Daily Report 27/07/2022

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The UK CBI retail sales index recovered marginally to -4 for July from -5 previously and slightly stronger than market expectations of -10. This was, however, the fourth successive decline in sales and retailers expect a further difficult month in August as overall confidence remains depressed. Sentiment towards the UK economic outlook remained weak and markets were less confident that the Bank of England would raise rates by 50 basis points at next week’s policy meeting. Sterling was, however, resilient and global trends tended to dominate during the day. Fears over the Euro-Zone outlook underpinned the UK currency against the Euro, while Sterling was hampered by weaker global risk conditions as equities lost traction. BRC data recorded a 4.4% increase in shop prices in the year to June, the strongest reading since the series started in 2005, maintaining pressure for faster Bank of England rate hikes.

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The Euro was unable to make headway in early Europe on Tuesday and selling pressure increased during the day amid fresh concerns over the Euro-Zone gas situation. The EU announced that it had reached a deal on regulation for emergency gas cuts this winter, but there was renewed upward pressure on prices with the European contract hitting fresh 4-month highs. The surge in prices triggered further concerns surrounding the economic outlook which sapped Euro support.

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US consumer confidence declined to 95.7 for July from 98.4 in June which was below consensus forecasts of 97.4 and the lowest reading since February 2021. There was decline in the present conditions index and a small dip in the expectations component with consumers also slightly less confident in the labour market. New home sales declined sharply to an annual rate of 590,000 for June from a revised 642,000 previously and well below consensus forecasts of 660,000. The US data maintained important reservations over the US outlook and US yields moved lower, but there was a decline in equities which triggered an element of defensive dollar demand and there was also evidence of month-end corporate buying. There are strong expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates by a further 75 basis points to 2.50% at Wednesday’s policy meeting. Guidance and rhetoric from Chair Powell is likely to be crucial for exchange rate moves.

Key Data 

13.30 Durable Goods Orders (Jun) Exp. -0.4% Prev. -0.8%
13.30 Nondefence Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft Exp. 0.2% Prev. 0.6%
19.00 Fed Interest Rate Decision Exp. 2.5% Curr. 1.75%
19.00 Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement
19.30 FOMC Press Conference