September 30, 2022

Daily Report 30/09/2022

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Bond-market volatility eased on Thursday with the 10-year yield holding above the 4.00% level. The easing of volatility was an important element in helping to provide an element of stability surrounding the currency. Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden stated that the central bank is on alert for further signs of strains while bank gilt purchases will be unwound in an orderly manner once risks ebb. There were no comments on interest rates from Ramsden.

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Euro-Zone industrial sentiment edged lower to -0.4 for September from 1.0 previously, but slightly stronger than consensus forecasts. There was a more substantial deterioration in services-sector confidence to 4.9 from 8.1 in August. The overall business and consumer confidence index declined to 93.7 for September from 97.3. German consumer prices jumped 1.9% for September compared with expectations of a 1.3% increase while the annual inflation rate surged to a fresh record high of 10.0% from 7.9% as the ending of transport subsidies put strong upward pressure on prices. The Euro-Zone data will be released on Friday with expectations of 9.7%

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It is a busier day ahead on the US economic calendar. Personal spending and Core PCE Price Index will be in the spotlight. While the consumption numbers will influence, inflation will be the market focal point. A larger than forecast pickup in the annual inflation rate would support another dollar breakout session. Economists forecast the Index to rise by 4.7% year-over-year in August, up from 4.6% in July. Later in the session, finalized Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectation numbers are also out. Any material revisions would influence the dollar. FOMC member commentary will also draw interest, with members Bowman, Mester and Williams and Fed Vice-Chair Brainard speaking today.

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