November 30, 2022
Daily Report 30/11/2022
UK mortgage approvals declined to just below 59,000 for October from a revised 66,000 the previous month and slightly below consensus forecasts of 60,000. The increase in consumer credit was held below £1.0bn with the overall increase in consumer lending at £4.7bn from £6.5bn in September. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann stated that she wanted to keep an eye on medium-term inflation expectations to assess what the appropriate interest rate decision might be appropriate at the next policy meeting. The latest survey on inflation expectations is due on December 9th ahead of the December 15th policy decision. She also expressed concerns over the increased inflation pressures within the services sector. Bank Governor Bailey stated that conditions in the gilt market had still not returned to normal. He also commented that the bank was not briefed on the mini-budget announced on September 23rd. Bailey added that the bank sees significant upside risks to the inflation outlook, maintaining expectations of a December rate hike.
No Key Data
Euro-Zone industrial confidence retreated to -2.0 for November from -1.2 while there was a slight improvement in services-sector sentiment. The overall business and consumer confidence survey recovered slightly to 93.7 from 92.7 with overall sentiment still subdued in the business sector. German consumer prices declined 0.5% for November compared with expectations of a 0.2% decline with the year-on-year inflation rate slowing more than expected to 10.0% from 10.4%. The lower inflation rate triggered some speculation that the ECB would be able to take a less aggressive stance at the December meeting. The latest Euro-Zone inflation data will be released on Wednesday with consensus forecasts that the headline rate will edge lower to 10.4% from 10.6%.
10.00 Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Nov) Exp. 5% Prev. 5%
10.00 Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Nov) Exp. 10.4% Prev. 10.6%
US consumer confidence dipped to 100.2 for November from a revised 102.2 previously and marginally above market expectations with declines for both the current conditions and expectations components. According to the Conference Board, the level of the expectations index suggests that the likelihood of recession remains elevated, although there was a slight improvement in labour-market confidence which suggests that employment is holding firm.
13.15 ADP Employment Change (Nov) Exp. 200k Prev. 239K
13.30 Gross Domestic Product Annualised (Q3) Exp. 2.6% Prev. 2.6%
18.30 Jerome Powell Speech