November 01, 2022

Daily Report 01/11/2022

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UK mortgage approvals declined to 66,800 for September from 74,400 the previous month and fractionally below consensus forecasts, although the overall increase in mortgage lending was close to the previous month. There was a slowdown in consumer borrowing for the month with the increase in credit-card borrowing held to £0.1bn from £0.7bn the previous month with the annual increase slowing to 12.1% from 13.2%. Sterling was unable to draw support from the data, especially with expectations that a tighter fiscal policy will allow the bank to take a less aggressive stance on interest rates. According to Prime Minister Sunak and Chancellor Hunt tax rises are unavoidable. Although the government is looking to manage market expectations, confidence in the outlook dipped again. Risk conditions were mixed as Wall Street indices posted net losses with speculation that the Administration would impose windfall taxes on energy companies, but UK equities posted solid gains on the day.

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The headline Euro-Zone consumer inflation rate increased sharply to 10.7% for October from 9.9% the previous month which was well above consensus forecasts of 10.2% and a fresh record high for the series. The underlying rate also increased to 5.0% from 4.8% which was above market expectations of 4.8% and also a record high. The Euro-Zone recorded GDP growth of 0.2% for the third quarter compared with expectations of 0.1%. The Euro was unable to gain support from the data with expectations that the ECB would not engage in more aggressive rate hikes, especially with unease over the economic outlook. The Euro continued to lose ground after the New York open with the currency vulnerable to position adjustment, especially given the build-up in long Euro positions.

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US Treasuries drifted lower ahead of the New York open with the 10-year bond yield increasing to around 4.06% and the dollar continued to gain ground. The Chicago PMI manufacturing index remained in contraction for October with a small decline to 45.2 from 45.7 previously and below consensus forecasts of 47.0, maintaining the run of generally weak manufacturing releases. The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index also dipped further to -19.4 for October from -17.2 previously.

Key Data 

14.00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) Exp. 50 Prev. 50.9