December 05, 2022

Daily Report 05/12/2022

Share this:


great british pound icon

There were again no significant domestic developments on Friday with global moves again dominating. Sterling dipped sharply after the US jobs data with a retreat against the US currency. There was, however, solid buying on dips and there were strong gains at the European close. Overall expectations of a Chinese economic recovery continued to provide net support to the UK currency with US indices paring losses. CFTC data recorded a small net increase in short, non-commercial Sterling positions which suggests that the Sterling recovery has not been driven by short covering and will maintain scope for short-term position adjustment and Sterling buying, especially if risk appetite holds firm. Bank of England MPC member Dhingra maintained a dovish stance with comments that there would be the risk of a deeper and longer recession with higher interest rates while there were few signs that demands for higher wages risked a wages-prices spiral given that rates are declining in real terms. She also pointed to weak employment and investment surveys. The CBI also issued a downbeat stance on the economic outlook, reinforcing recession fears.

No Key Data

Euro logo

CFTC data recorded a small decline in long, non-commercial Euro positions to 122,000. At a speech yesterday, European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau backed the case for a 50 bps rate hike in December to help tame surging consumer prices. He also stated that he believes inflation will peak during the first half of next year. Elsewhere, an EU-wide ban on Russian crude oil imported by sea is due to take effect from today.

Key Data 

10.00 Retail Sales (YOY) (Oct) Exp. -2.6% Prev. -0.6%

dollars icon

US non-farm payrolls increased 263,000 for November above consensus forecasts of around 200,000, and the October increase was revised up to 284,000 from the original reading of 261,000. There was, however, a smaller increase in private-sector payrolls growth which was offset by a stronger gain in government jobs. There was a significant decline in retail jobs for the month with transport and temporary jobs also recording a decline on the month. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% and in line with expectations with a reported 138,000 decline in the number of employed in the household survey as the participation rate edged lower. Average hourly wages increased 0.6% for November, double consensus forecasts of 0.3% with the annual increase at 5.1% from a revised 4.9% and well above expectations of 4.6%. There were expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase rates by 50 basis points at the December policy meeting. Chicago President Evans stated that there was scope to slow the pace of rate hikes, but that there is likely to be a slightly higher peak than expected previously.

Key Data 

15.00 ISM Services PMI (Nov) Exp. 53.1 Prev. 54.4