July 06, 2022

Daily Report 06/07/2022

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The UK PMI services-sector index recorded a final reading of 54.3 for June from the flash reading of 53.4 with reports of strong spending in the travel and leisure sectors providing underlying support. There was a net increase in unfilled orders, although an important element was due to recruitment difficulties. Overall business optimism, dipped to the lowest level since May 2020 while inflation pressures remained strong with the second-highest readings on record for increases in costs and prices. The data failed to underpin Sterling and the UK currency was undermined by weaker global risk appetite and a sharp dip in UK equities. There was fresh political drama after the European close with the resignations of Chancellor Sunak and Health Secretary Javid. There was intense speculation that Prime Minister Johnson would be forced to resign as uncertainty spiked higher. Zahawi was appointed as the new Chancellor and there will be speculation over a shift in economic policies with more aggressive fiscal stimulus which may provide limited Sterling support.

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The Euro was unable to make any headway after the European open on Tuesday and selling pressure gradually increased. The main focus was on gas prices with a fresh surge in prices to 16-week highs undermining confidence in the Euro-Zone outlook. There were particular concerns over the German economy given its dependence on imported gas and increased economic vulnerability. In this context, there were fresh doubts whether the ECB would be able to tighten monetary policy significantly which capped currency support. There were also reports of a large Euro sell order after Monday’s US holiday and selling gradually increased.

Key Data 

10.00 Retail Sales (YoY) (May) Exp. 5.4% Prev. 3.9%

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Treasuries held a firm tone ahead of Tuesday’s New York open and there were further gains as Wall Street equities came under pressure. There was an element of defensive demand for bonds as equity markets moved lower and there was also buying in the context of increased fears that the US economy will dip into recession. The 10-year yield dipped to lows just below 2.80% which undermined the dollar. The Federal Reserve minutes will be released on Wednesday, although the rhetoric will be seen as dated and comments from Fed officials will also be important.

Key Data

15.00 ISM Services PMI (Jun) Exp. 54.5 Prev. 55.9
19.00 FOMC Minutes