October 11, 2022
Daily Report 11/10/2022
Sterling posted gains after the European open following the Bank of England statement that it would double the maximum amount of bond purchases this week and also provide an additional facility to provide market liquidity which would help protect the banking sector and underpin pension funds. Sterling briefly traded higher against the dollar, but was unable to sustain the move and quickly retreated, especially with vulnerable risk conditions. The government announced that the medium-term fiscal plan would be brought forward to October 31st which also provided only a brief lift to the UK currency. BRC data recorded a like-for-like retail sales increase of 1.8% in the year to September, but volumes declined and overall Sterling sentiment remained very fragile. The UK labour-market data overall was stronger than expected with faster growth in earnings and lower unemployment while the Bank of England announced that it would also buy index-linked bonds.
7.00 ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Aug) Act. 3.5% Exp. 3.6% Prev. 3.6%
19.35 Andrew Bailey Speech
The Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence index dipped further to -38.3 for October from -31.8 previously which was weaker than consensus forecasts of -34.7 and the weakest reading since May 2020. According to Sentix, in addition to the economic worries, there is now also an increasing probability of an escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. It also expressed fears over the global outlook with only China appearing to be stabilising somewhat at the current time. The Euro was subjected to renewed selling after the European open on Monday with fresh fears surrounding the Ukraine situation as Russia launched a high number of missiles on cities across Ukraine. Although many were intercepted, there were still a large number of strikes with markets uneasy over the threat of further escalation. The latest data on gas storage levels in Europe was more encouraging with mild weather allowing a further increase, lessening immediate fears surrounding this winter period.
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US employment cost index strengthened to 120.17 for September from 119.06 the previous month. Treasury markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday, but equity markets dipped lower after the New York open. The dollar overall maintained a strong tone with highs in early US trading. Chicago Fed President Evans stated that the policy rate needed to increase to just above 4.50% by early next year and remain there as the central bank takes stock. Evans added that without a period of restrictive policy, inflation would not fall to anything near the 2% target. Fed Governor Brainard stated that monetary policy will be restrictive for a while and that cumulative tightening will take time to bring inflation down. She noted that the Fed should proceed deliberately to assess how the economy, employment and inflation are adjusting in order to inform the path of policy rates.
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