July 12, 2023

Daily Report 12/07/2023

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Sterling posted further gains after the latest UK labour-market data with further speculation that the Bank of England would have to be more aggressive in raising interest rates. Futures markets put the chance of back-to-back 50 basis-point rate hikes at around 70%. In its annual review of the UK economy, the IMF stated that the Bank of England may have to keep interest rates high for an extended period if inflation pressure persists. Overall risk conditions were broadly steady with a limited recovery in the FTSE 100 index which helped underpin the UK currency.

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The German ZEW investor confidence index retreated to –14.7 for July from –8.5 previously and weaker than the expected reading of –10.5. The current conditions component also edged lower on the month, but slightly stronger than expected. The Euro held firm after Tuesday’s European open with 2-month highs against the Dollar, but there was a net retreat ahead of the New York open.

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The latest US consumer prices inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Consensus forecasts are for prices to increase 0.3% on the month, but with favourable base effects, the annual inflation rate is expected to decline to 3.1% from 4.0%. This would be the lowest reading since April 2021. The underlying rate is forecast to decline to 5.0% from 5.3% previously. The Federal Reserve will remain determined to maintain a hawkish stance if the data is stronger than expected while a weaker reading would increase market speculation over a policy pivot. The data will also have an important impact on risk appetite.

Key Data 

13.30 Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun) Exp. 0.3% Prev. 0.1%
13.30 Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) Exp. 3.1% Prev. 4%
13.30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (Jun) Exp. 0.3% Prev. 0.4%
13.30 Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jun) Exp. 5% Prev. 5.3%