November 16, 2022

Daily Report 16/11/2022

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After the latest UK jobs data at the European, there were no major domestic developments during the day, but Sterling was subjected to high volatility. The UK currency posted strong gains after the European open with a move against the dollar. Sterling spiked to 3-month highs after the US open amid a wider dollar slide and jump in short covering before a rapid reversal to with strong selling interest. Sterling was undermined by reports that Russian missiles landed in Poland and dipped sharply to lows before a recovery amid choppy trading in equities. The headline UK CPI inflation rate increased sharply to 11.1% from 10.1% and above expectations of 10.7% as higher energy prices had an important impact. The core rate was unchanged at 6.5% and marginally above expectations of 6.4%. Sterling spiked on the data, but failed to hold the gains and as confidence in the UK outlook deteriorated. If the Bank of England is forced to take more aggressive action, there will be concerns over a deeper recession.

Key Data

14.15 Band of England Monetary Policy Report Hearings

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The Euro posted strong gains after Tuesday’s European open with a surge against the dollar. The German ZEW economic sentiment index recovered strongly to -38.7 for November from -59.7 the previous month and stronger than consensus forecasts of -52.0. The current conditions index recorded a more modest improvement to -64.5 from -72.2 and above expectations of -68.4. Euro-Zone GDP was confirmed at 0.2% for the third quarter with a 2.1% year-on-year increase.

Key Data

17.00 Christine Lagarde Speech

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US producer prices increased 0.2% for October, below consensus forecasts of 0.4% with the year-on-year rate declining to 8.0% from 8.4%. Core prices were unchanged with the year-on-year increase slowing to 6.7% from 7.1% and below expectations of 7.2%, reinforcing optimism that underlying inflation was moderating. The New York Empire manufacturing index rebounded to 4.5 for November from -9.1 the previous month and well above expectations of -5.0.  Shipments also increased on the month, but there was a dip in new orders into contraction territory while unfilled orders also declined. Employment increased on the month and there was a net strengthening of price pressures compared with the previous release.

Key Data 

13.30 Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) Exp. 1% Prev. 0%
13.30 Retail Sales Control Group (Oct) Exp. 0.3% Prev. 0.4%