June 21, 2022

Daily Report 21/06/2022

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Bank of England MPC member Mann stated that there are signs that inflation in the UK is becoming more embedded and persistent and also had more momentum after government support measures for households. She called for more aggressive tightening, especially as that would reduce the risk that domestic inflation is further boosted by inflation imported via Sterling depreciation. She was, however, also concerned that there is an increasingly stark trade-off in terms of persistent inflation against deteriorating real income. From a medium-term view, there was the possibility of a rate reversal when domestic supports to demand fade. The reaction was relatively muted given that Mann had demonstrated her hawkish stance by backing a 50 basis-point hike at the June meeting. Sterling drew limited support from a steadier tone surrounding risk appetite, although there was still an important element of caution with this week’s rail strikes also a negative factor. There will be some reservations over selling Sterling ahead of Wednesday’s inflation data with the headline CPI rate expected to edge higher to a fresh 40-year high at 9.1%.

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ECB council member Kazaks stated that he would support a 25 basis-point rate hike in July and 50 basis points in September. He added that inflation would need to surprise on the downside for it not to be 50 basis points at the September meeting, although he added that investors should not think that this will be the new default. Bank President Lagarde reiterated that the bank intends to increase rates by 25 basis points at the July meeting. She added that price rises are becoming more widespread across sectors and measures of underlying inflation have risen further. She also noted that the bank expects to raise rates again in September. The Euro overall managed to edge higher on Monday as the dollar retreated slightly, although overall moves were limited, especially with US markets closed for a holiday. ECB chief economist Lane stated that he could see no situation where the July rate hike would not go ahead while the size of the September hike is still undecided.

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There was an element of caution ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress due on Wednesday. St Louis Fed President Bullard stated that the economy is slowing to the trend rate of growth as expected due to Fed actions. He added that the central bank must follow through and validate prior forward guidance as there would be the risk of inflation expectations becoming un-anchored if there was no action. He did, however, consider that there may not be that far to go on quantitative tightening through bond sales and peak Fed expectations declined marginally.

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