July 21, 2022

Daily Report 21/07/2022

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Sterling was unable to gain support from the UK inflation data as the underlying rate edged lower on the month while markets had already moved to price in a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England. There are strong expectations that the bank will sanction a 50 basis-point rate hike at the August meeting, limiting scope for further buying. Sterling was unable to derive further support from a more solid tone surrounding risk appetite, especially with global economic reservations. Markets monitored political developments with some reservations over uncertainty surrounding tax policies. Foreign Secretary Truss’s criticism of the Bank of England inflation performance also triggered an element of uncertainty as she won through to the final ballot of Conservative Party members and will run-off against former Chancellor Sunak.

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The Euro was unable to make further headway in early Europe on Wednesday with the underlying element of uncertainty surrounding the Euro-Zone economic outlook limiting the scope for more buying while pressure for short covering eased slightly ahead of the ECB policy meeting. There was a warning from Russian President Putin that gas supplies through the Nord-Stream pipeline could be switched off, maintaining an important element of uncertainty over the outlook for supplies. There were also further warnings from Euro-Zone officials over the heavy economic damage if supplies are cut off. The EU Commission continued to make contingency plans to cope with gas supplies being cut off during the winter period. Risk appetite also dipped ahead of the New York open following comments from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. He stated that geographical objectives of the special operation in Ukraine have changed from just the Donbas to include a number of other territories. Euro-Zone consumer confidence dipped again to -27 for July from -23.8 previously and weaker than consensus forecasts of -24.9. Markets will be braced for substantial Euro moves during Thursday with the ECB policy decision and press conference. Italian Prime Minister Draghi will also meet with the President and is expected to resign while there will also be uncertainty over the resumption of Nord-stream gas supplies which is scheduled on Thursday.

Key Data 

13.15 ECB Interest Rate Decision Exp. 0% Curr. 0.25%
13.15 ECB Deposit Rate Decision Exp. -0.25% Curr. -0.5%
13.15 ECB Monetary Policy Decision Statement
13.45 ECB Press Conference

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US existing home sales declined to an annual rate of 5.12mn for June from 5.41mn previously which was below consensus forecasts of 5.38mn and the lowest reading since July 2020. The data maintained reservations over the US housing sector, but Treasuries were unable to gain support following the release and the 10-year yield moved back above the 3.00% level with the 2-year yield close to 3.20% which provide some support for the US currency.

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