July 25, 2023

Daily Report 25/07/2023

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The UK PMI manufacturing index dipped to a 38-month low of 45.0 for July from 46.5 previously and below consensus forecasts of 46.1. The services-sector index also retreated to a 6-month low of 51.5 from 53.7 and below expectations of 53.0. There was further strong upward pressure on wage costs, especially in the services sector. The manufacturing sector, however, reported price cuts in freight rates and metals prices. The overall increase in output prices across both sectors did register the slowest rate of increase since February 2021, but there were still strong increases in an historical context. Sterling tended to lose ground after the data with the weaker than expected data triggering fresh reservations over the outlook.

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The latest Euro-Zone PMI business confidence data recorded a further decline in the manufacturing sector to a 38-month low of 42.7 for July from 43.4 the previous month and below expectations of 43.5. The German figure was particularly weak with further deterioration which dragged the overall index lower. There was also a slowdown in the services-sector to a 6-month low of 51.1 from 52.0 the previous month. There was a further decline in input-price inflation with the lowest reading since November 2020. Average prices charged for goods and services meanwhile rose at the slowest rate for 29 months, although the rate of increase was still well above the long-term average.

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9.00 ECB Bank Lending Survey

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According to flash data, the US PMI manufacturing index recovered to a 3-month high of 49.0 for July from 46.3 previously and above consensus forecasts of 46.3. The services-sector index, however, retreated to a 5-month low of 52.4 from 54.4 and below market expectations of 54.0. The rate of increase in services-sector prices slowed to the weakest reading since October 2020, but there was a faster rate of increase in services-sector prices. The increases were led by the services sector with companies looking to offset increased expenses while manufacturing prices were little changed.

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