January 27, 2023

Daily Report 27/01/2023

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The CBI retail sales report recorded a headline reading of -23 for January from 11 previously and well below consensus forecasts of -5. Retailers also expect sales to decline in February, but at a slower rate. Supplier orders declined again and stocks remained too high, reinforcing near-term concerns over the outlook. Sterling was, however, broadly resilient during the day as risk appetite held steady and market positioning ahead of the central bank policy decisions.

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The dollar traded in tight ranges ahead of Thursday’s New York open with caution ahead of the latest US data releases. Overall Euro sentiment held firm, although there was further selling interest above a new level. There was also underlying caution ahead of the ECB and Federal Reserve policy decisions next week. There were no further comments from ECB officials with the central bank in a blackout period ahead of next week’s policy decision.

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According to the first reading, US GDP increased at an annualised rate of 2.9% for the fourth quarter of 2022 from 3.2% the previous quarter and above consensus forecasts of 2.6%. Consumer spending increased at a slightly slower rate of 2.2% from 2.3%. There was a positive contribution from government spending with a technical boost from trade as imports declined, but residential investment declined again. The dollar posted net gains after the raft of data releases with the recent US currency moves influenced to an important extent by data releases.

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