May 27, 2022

Daily Report 27/05/2022

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According to the latest ONS data there was a dip in UK credit and debit card spending in the latest week, but there was also a strong increase in job ads. The data is not seasonally adjusted, but markets remained wary over the outlook for consumer spending and the wider economy. Chancellor Sunak announced a total support package of £15bn to provide support to ease the cost of living crisis and surge in energy costs. As well as universal support measures, there will be additional support for low earners. The support for will be financed in part by a 25% tax on excess profits on the energy sector. The fiscal support will potentially give the Bank of England increased scope to raise interest rates to curb inflation pressure. Sterling had, however, posted net gains into the announcement and hit resistance against the dollar. It also failed to hold the gains with a quick retreat below key level. Stronger equity markets provided significant net support for the UK currency. Sterling posted further gains on Friday with fresh 1-month high against the dollar before edging lower while the Euro edged lower.

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German economics minister Habeck stated that the EU is still looking for an overall embargo on Russian oil, but may seek alternatives in coming days if no agreement can be reached. The Euro pushed sharply higher after Thursday’s European open with a move higher as the dollar was subjected to wider selling pressure. There was choppy trading with German and French markets closed for holidays.

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ECB’s Lane speech

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US initial jobless claims declined to 210,000 in the latest week from 218,000 previously and slightly below consensus forecasts while continuing claims increased to 1.35mn from 1.32mn. The first-quarter GDP estimate was revised down to -1.5% from the first estimate of -1.3% despite an upward revision to consumer spending.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index retreated to 19 from 28 previously which provided an element of relief given that some regional surveys have registered notable weakness, but there were still reservations over the outlook as companies warned over the impact of high inflation.

After gaining some relief into the New York open, the dollar lost ground again into the European close with some further speculation that the Fed may not to tighten policy as aggressively as expected previously. There was also some tentative evidence that longer-term inflation expectations were stabilising.

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