Halifax reported that UK house prices declined 0.3% for July after a 0.1% retreat previously, although the year-on-year decline moderated to 2.4% from 2.6% previously. According to Bank of England chief economist Pill, there are risks on both sides for UK inflation. There is a risk that inflation will fall below target, but also risks that the central bank has not raised interest rates enough. BRC retail sales data recorded 1.8% annual growth in like-for-like sales from 4.2% previously, increasing reservations over near-term consumer spending trends.
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The Euro remained vulnerable in early Europe on Monday with the weaker than expected German economic data hampering support. Production declined 1.5% for June compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.1% decline and followed a 0.1% retreat for the previous month. The Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence index improved to –18.9 for August from –22.5 previously and compared with consensus forecasts of –23.4. There was further weakness in Germany, but there was evidence of recoveries in some other countries for the month which pulled the overall index higher.
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Markets were continuing to look ahead to US and Chinese inflation releases later in the week given the impact on risk appetite and interest rate expectations. In comments on Monday, New York Federal ReservePresident Williams stated that inflation is coming down as hoped and he expects that unemployment will increase slightly over the next few months. Willaims also said that it was possible that interest rates would decline in 2024.
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