May 11, 2023

Daily Report 11/05/2023

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Sterling tended to drift lower into Wednesday’s US open with the primary focus on US developments. Sterling was boosted by the US data, especially with equities making headway. In this environment, the UK currency posted a marginal 12-month high but was unable to hold the gains and retreated as the dollar fought back in global markets and equity markets failed to hold intra-day highs. There are strong expectations that the Bank of England will increase interest rates again at Thursday’s policy meeting with a 25 basis-point hike to 4.50%. Markets expect a split vote and the forward guidance from the bank will be very important for market sentiment towards the UK economy and currency. There are expectations that growth forecasts will be revised higher again in the Monetary Policy Report. Sterling found support against the dollar and settled on Thursday with markets wary over the risk of a sell-off after the policy decision, especially given that markets are pricing in further rate increases. Overall risk conditions will also be significant for Sterling moves during the day.

Key Data 

12.00 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision Exp. 4.5% Prev. 4.25%

12.00 Bank of England Minutes

12.00 Bank of England Monetary Policy Statement

12.30 Andrew Bailey Speech

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Tight ranges prevailed ahead of the US inflation data on Wednesday with the Euro unable to gain any fresh traction. ECB President Lagarde stated that the central bank had to be very attentive to inflation risks with a particular focus on wage increases. In this context, she stated that there was more work to do on interest rates. There were also source reports from the ECB that rate hikes may need to be continued until September. Bundesbank head Nagel stated that there was more work to do, but he added that the central bank might be approaching the final straight of rate increases.

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US consumer prices increased 0.4% in April with the year-on-year inflation rate declining to 4.9% from 5.0%. This was marginally below expectations of 5.0% and the lowest headline rate since February 2021. Food prices were unchanged on the month with a 7.7% annual increase while energy prices declined 5.6% over the year despite a monthly increase of 0.6%. Underlying prices increased 0.4% on the month with the year-on-year increase slowing to 5.5% from 5.6% and both metrics were in line with expectations. There was a strong rebound in used truck prices for the month, but some moderation in the rate of increase in shelter costs.

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