August 11, 2022

Daily Report 11/08/2022

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Sterling was held in relatively narrow ranges ahead of the US inflation data with a tentative net advance against the dollar. There were further important reservations surrounding the UK outlook as the political and economic debate surrounding a surge in energy prices continued to intensify. Sterling posted strong gains after the US prices data with the impact of a weaker dollar amplified by much stronger risk conditions. Immediately after the release, the UK currency jumped to highs against the US currency and maintained a strong tone into the European close as risk appetite maintained a very strong tone. The UK Rightmove housing data was slightly stronger than expected, but global developments dominated with Sterling little changed on Thursday.

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Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner predicted a gloomy time ahead for Germany and the Eurozone. The Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices came in at 8.5%, in line with the estimates and the prior release. US inflation dropped sharply on declining oil prices while German inflation remained steady, which indicates that the energy crisis has deepened in the Eurozone area.

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Consumer prices were unchanged on the month compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase. The year-on-year rate declined to 8.5% from the 40-year high of 9.1% and below consensus forecasts of 8.7%. Energy prices declined 4.6% on the month, although there was still a 32.9% annual increase while gasoline prices dipped 7.7% on the month to give a 44% annual increase. Food prices increased1.1% on the month to give a 10.9% annual increase. Underlying prices increased 0.3% for the month, also below expectations of 0.5%, with the annual rate holding at 5.9% and below expectations of 6.1%. Used car prices declined on the month and there was a marginal decline for apparel while transport services prices also edged lower on the month. Following the lower than inflation data, there was a shift in expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies with markets now expecting that there will be a further 50 basis-point rate hike at the September meeting rather than 75 basis points. There was also a sharp boost to risk appetite which undermined the US currency and the dollar overall weakened sharply after the release amid a huge tone of relief.

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