July 17, 2023

Daily Report 17/07/2023

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There was choppy Sterling trading after Friday’s European open with underlying pressure for a correction after strong gains against the dollar over the past 48 hours. The overall yield structure continued to provide net support for the UK currency, but there was further evidence of position adjustment and a paring of long positions. The latest UK inflation data this week will be a key element for the UK currency. CFTC data recorded a fresh increase in long, non-commercial Sterling positions to just above 58,000 contracts from just over 50,000 previously and the largest long position for at least 15 years. The positioning data will maintain the risk of a sharp clear-out in positions if there is a shift in towards the UK outlook and yields.

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There were no major comments from ECB officials during Friday. Overall, the Euro settled against the dollar and there was little change on Monday with markets monitoring any comments from ECB officials. There was, however, still solid Euro buying on dips as overall dollar sentiment remained negative on hopes that inflation will decline further.

Key Data 

9.15 Christine Lagarde Speech

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The University of Michigan consumer confidence index strengthened to 72.6 for July from 64.4 previously and comfortably above consensus forecasts of 65.5. there were significant net gains for both the current conditions and expectations components for the month. The 1-year inflation expectations index increased slightly to 3.4% from 3.3% the previous month while the 5-year index edged higher to 3.1% from 3.0%. The dollar rallied slightly after the US data, but struggled to make any significant headway amid expectations that US underlying inflation pressures are easing.

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