July 18, 2023

Daily Report 18/07/2023

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Sterling overall was held in relatively tight ranges during Monday, although the currency tended to drift lower on the day. There were further doubts whether the Bank of England expectations were realistic and there was significant caution ahead of the UK inflation data. Consensus forecasts are for the headline rate to decline to 8.3% from 8.7% with the core rate unchanged at 7.1%. The latest COT data recorded the largest number of long Sterling contracts since 2007 and the largest value since 2014. The positioning data also increased concerns that there was little scope for further speculative buying and could lead to sharp losses if there is any shift in confidence or interest rate expectations.

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In comments on Monday, ECB council member Vasle stated that core inflation remains high and resilient. Bundesbank head Nagel said that core inflation is very sticky and the bank needs to raise rates again in July while the September decision would be driven by the data. There are still very strong expectations that the central bank will increase interest rates again at next week’s policy meeting. Markets will be on high alert for any fresh forward guidance from the central bank.

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The New York Empire manufacturing index retreated to 1.1 for July from 6.6 the previous month but was above consensus forecasts of –4.3. Shipments increased at a slower pace while orders recorded another small increase on the month and unfilled orders continued to decline. Labour-market indicators were stronger on the month, but there was a significant easing in upward pressure on prices paid and received. Companies were slightly less optimistic over the outlook while pricing pressure are expected to increase slightly with overall data mixed.

Key Data 

13.30 Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) Exp. 0.5% Prev. 0.3%
13.30 Retail Sales Control Group (Jun) Exp.-0.3% Prev. 0.2%